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Thoro-Bet Statistics

Basic statistics of selections used on this site, the statistics vary from track to tract and condition of the track and weather including raining; muddy, sloppy, snowing, too hot, too cold or the horse just did not want to run for one reason or another. These statistics are from a wide range of tracks and race types rolled up into these statistics below. Over time the statistics smooth's out to the averages written below.

Out of 742 races one of 4 choices hit 620 times for 83.5% Out of 742 races lost 122 times or 16.4%

Note: Below shows the statistics based on the 620 WINS I did hit out of the 742 races. Note: The statistics does not show the HIGH presentage 1st time starters hit.

GENERAL STATISTICS

1st choice won 37%
2nd choice won 26%
3rd choice won 24%
4th choice won 13%

STAKE RACES

S P R I N T
1st choice won 50%
2nd choice won 15%
3rd choice won 30%
4th choice won 05%

R O U T E
1st choice won 28%
2nd choice won 32%
3rd choice won 16%
4th choice won 24%

ALLOWANCE RACES

S P R I N T
1st choice won 48%
2nd choice won 28%
3rd choice won 11%
4th choice won 13%
5th choice won 06%

R O U T E
1st choice won 37%
2nd choice won 30%
3rd choice won 19%
4th choice won 14%

CLAIMING RACES

S P R I N T
1st choice won 30%
2nd choice won 20%
3rd choice won 27%
4th choice won 23%

R O U T E
1st choice won 40%
2nd choice won 21%
3rd choice won 31%
4th choice won 07%

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

G E N E R A L
1st choice won 41%
2nd choice won 41%
3rd choice won 14%
4th choice won 03%

MAIDEN CLAIMING

G E N E R A L
1st choice won 35%
2nd choice won 24%
3rd choice won 32%
4th choice won 08%


Turf to Dirt or Dirt to Turf

On my statistics and choices it did not matter if the horse was switching surfaces or not the percentage was not enough to make a difference to choose one over the other.



--- WINNING THROUGH ---
--- HORSE RACING STATISTICS ---


Racing statistics has remain the same, and have been for years, the value you place on the statistics below should not be underestimated. This information I am about to tell you will help you in many ways at the favorite track or tracks.

From the information below you could easily come up with your own simple system. Several factors can make you money just by themselves; however on my picks I use on my site I use over 30 systems to come up with my picks and even this is always changing from time to time.

My system above considers speed, early speed and strength (class) to be the most important factor but if you choose to blend my system with the statistics below that are accurate you are more than welcome.

Remember this student of horse handicapping will always be a student. Projecting the outcome of any race where flesh and blood are the contenders, has more factors involved than what I care to mention.

DAYS BETWEEN RACES
 
(Statistics based on 2000 races.)

1,264 Winners last race within 7 days ---------- = 63.2%
423   Winners last race between 8 and 14 days -- = 21.1%
313   Winners last race over 14 days ----------- = 15.7%

A total of 84.3% of the winners had their last race within 14 days.

DISTANCE
 
(Statistics based on 5,000 Winners.)

2,584 Ran same distance as last race ------ = 51.6% --\         
1,367 Ran longer distance than last race -- = 21.3% --- 6.1% out
1,049 Ran shorter distance than last race - = 21.0% --/         

A total of 72.9% of the Winners Ran same or longer distance.
CLASS
 
(Statistics based on 5,000 Winners.)

4,517 Raced in the same or lower class than in their last race
  483 Raced in higher class than in their last race           

A total of 90.3% of the Winners ran in same or lower class than last.

MALE AND FEMALE COMPETING TOGETHER
 
(Statistics based on 2,000 Winners.)

1,513 were won by males --- (colts, geldings) - 75.6%
487   were won by females (fillies and mares) - 24.3%

A total of 76% of the races were won by males in a mixed race.

FIRST THREE CHOICES ACCORDING
TO CLOSING ODDS ON TOTE BOARD.
  
(Statistics based on 7,500 races.)

1st choice won 2,617 races = 34.9% -\          
2nd choice won 1,357 races = 18.1% -- 37.3% out
3rd choice won   952 races = 12.7% -/          

The size and the distance of the race made no difference when it came
to picking 53% of the winners from among the top two choices.        

PUBLIC HANDICAPPERS
 
(Statistics based on 7,500 races.)

1st choice won 2,107 races = 28.1% -\          
2nd choice won 1,372 races = 18.3% -- 39.2% out
3rd choice won 1,155 races = 14.4% -/          

The size and the distance of the race made no difference when it came to picking 46.4% of the winners from among the top two choices of a good public handicapper.

Do not flat bet on their selections by reason of you can profit rarely due to low odds. On a whole days race card a good public handicapper will only pick about 25% to 30% winners. That obviously means 70% to 75% of the winners are hiding and it will take a half way decent horse system to break the 30% barrier.

You can make money at 30%, what is also true, is breaking the 30% barrier also means greater payoffs. What I mean by this is if you were to look at the track record for that meet you will see the percent of winning favorites customarily average 28% to 32%.

If you can break the 30% barrier the profit you will realize will be greater than what you now think is possible.

FINISH LAST RACE
(Statistics based on 5,000 winners.)

2,926 Finished within 2 lengths of the winner last race = 58.5%
3,014 Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in their last race ----- = 60.3%
1,060 Won their last race ----------------------------- = 21.6%
RACES FOR 3YR OLD AND UPWARDS:
6 FURLONG TO 1 1/16 MILES
(Statistics based on 2,000 races.)

1,538 races won by 4 year olds and older --- = 76.9%
462   races won by 3 year olds ------------- = 23.1%
WEIGHT
(Statistics based on 5,000 winners.)

2,361 Carried the same weight as in last race = 47.2%
1,547 Carried less weight than in last race - = 31.0%
1,002 Carried more weight than last race ---- = 21.8%

A total of 78.2% Carried same or less weight than last race.
FAVORITE CLOSED AT ODDS OF 7/5 OR LESS
(Statistics based on 1,000 races.)

475 Favorites won -- = 47.3%
606 Favorites placed = 68.6%
CLOSED AT ODDS OF 3/5 OR LESS
(Statistics based on 150 races.)


102 Favorites won -- = 68.0% 130 Favorites placed = 86.6%

--- ENDING EVALUATION ---

Keep in mind that no system can stand on its own merits alone. Coupling it with other systems or using the four picks per race on my site to help you choose contenders will help you do quite well at the track.


95%   Of all horse systems on the market today are based on the statistical
      facts I have just presented to you.                                  
90%   Were in the same or less class than in their last race.              
86% # Are placed where the favorites close at 3/5 or less.                 
84%   Of today's winners race within 14 days of their last race.           
78%   Carried the same or less weight than in their last race.             
77% # Won by older horses when in a race for 3 years oldies and upwards.   
75%   Males win while running against females.                             
73%   Ran same or longer distance.                                         
68% # Are won where the favorites close at 7/5 or less.                    
60% # Were in the money last out.                                          
53% # Of the 1st and 2nd choices on the closing tote board win.            
46%   Of the 1st and 2nd choices of public handicapper win.                

--- BE CAREFUL of face values of statistical facts. --

You can 100% of your races if you put $2.00 on every contender. Statistical facts cannot always be taken face value.

Example: (A) Putting $2.00 on every horse in a 12 horse field would cost $24.00  
             a horse paying 12 to 1 would half to win in order for you to break  
             even though you would win 100% of your races,  you would lose money 
             90% of the time, go figure.                                         
                                                                                 
Example: (B) 90% of the races are won my horses who are running in the same class
             or less. TRUE but most of the time  90%  of the horses in a race are
             running at the same class or lower anyway.                          

The trick is to pick the 10% that is hiding along with the 90% that you know has the chance of winning. I have put a pound sign next to the statistics above I feel is deserving of a face value approach.


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